{"id":259,"date":"2026-05-15T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shopattheponds.com.au\/news\/?p=259"},"modified":"2026-05-13T01:01:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T15:01:17","slug":"rba-holds-cash-rate-at-3-85-for-fourth-consecutive-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shopattheponds.com.au\/news\/rba-holds-cash-rate-at-3-85-for-fourth-consecutive-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA holds cash rate at 3.85% for fourth consecutive meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Australia\u2019s central bank kept the policy setting unchanged, leaving the cash rate at <strong>3.85%<\/strong> for a fourth straight <strong>gathering<\/strong>. The decision lands in a moment of <strong>crosscurrents<\/strong>, with inflation easing but still too <strong>elevated<\/strong>, growth cooling yet not <strong>stalling<\/strong>, and households feeling the accumulated weight of prior <strong>tightening<\/strong>. In the words of one market refrain, \u201chigher for <strong>longer<\/strong> is not the same as <strong>forever<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>Why the pause persists<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>The Bank is balancing <strong>two<\/strong> imperatives: restrain persistent <strong>price<\/strong> pressures while avoiding an unnecessary blow to <strong>employment<\/strong> and private <strong>demand<\/strong>. Officials see earlier hikes still working their way through the <strong>economy<\/strong>, with mortgage resets and tighter financial <strong>conditions<\/strong> continuing to cool <strong>spending<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Policy remains explicitly <strong>data\u2011dependent<\/strong>, and the Board has signaled that both patience and <strong>resolve<\/strong> are required to guide inflation back to <strong>target<\/strong>. As one line heard often in central\u2011bank circles goes, \u201cthe path back to target will be <strong>bumpy<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>Inflation: progress with patience<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Headline inflation has fallen from last year\u2019s <strong>peak<\/strong>, but it remains above the <strong>2\u20133%<\/strong> target <strong>band<\/strong>. Underlying measures show <strong>gradual<\/strong> improvement, yet services prices are still <strong>sticky<\/strong>, reflecting wages, rents, and capacity <strong>pressures<\/strong> that unwind only over <strong>time<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>The Bank appears to be betting that already\u2011delivered <strong>tightening<\/strong> will keep demand below <strong>trend<\/strong>, allowing supply normalization and easing cost <strong>pressures<\/strong> to do more of the <strong>work<\/strong>. That stance buys time to observe incoming <strong>data<\/strong> while preserving <strong>credibility<\/strong> against lingering <strong>price<\/strong> risks.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>Labor market crosscurrents<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Employment has stayed <strong>resilient<\/strong>, with participation <strong>high<\/strong> and unemployment still <strong>low<\/strong> by historical <strong>standards<\/strong>. At the same time, forward indicators point to a <strong>cooling<\/strong> in hiring intentions and more modest <strong>hours<\/strong> worked, a sign policy is gaining <strong>traction<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Wage growth has lifted from pre\u2011pandemic <strong>lows<\/strong>, but second\u2011round effects remain the decisive <strong>watchpoint<\/strong>. Policymakers want pay gains consistent with the <strong>target<\/strong>, not an entrenched <strong>price\u2011wage<\/strong> loop. As the refrain goes, \u201crelief is <strong>relative<\/strong> when real incomes are still <strong>catching<\/strong> up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>Households and businesses feel the grind<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>The cash\u2011flow squeeze is <strong>real<\/strong>, especially for variable\u2011rate <strong>borrowers<\/strong> and recent home <strong>buyers<\/strong>. Consumption is <strong>diverging<\/strong>, with discretionary outlays under <strong>pressure<\/strong> and essentials taking a bigger budget <strong>share<\/strong>. Savings buffers built during the <strong>pandemic<\/strong> are thinning, exposing households to shock <strong>risks<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Businesses report a mixed <strong>picture<\/strong>: input costs are easing in some <strong>sectors<\/strong>, while services and labor remain <strong>tight<\/strong>. Investment plans are still <strong>intact<\/strong> where demand visibility is <strong>clearer<\/strong>, but sensitivity to financing costs has <strong>risen<\/strong>, especially among smaller and highly <strong>leveraged<\/strong> firms.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>Market reaction and the policy path<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Markets largely <strong>anticipated<\/strong> the hold, with front\u2011end yields little <strong>changed<\/strong> and the currency edging within recent <strong>ranges<\/strong>. Pricing implies a longer plateau, then a slow <strong>glide<\/strong> toward easing once inflation convincingly <strong>slows<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Crucially, the Board kept its <strong>options<\/strong> open. Risks are <strong>two\u2011sided<\/strong>: a premature pivot could rekindle <strong>inflation<\/strong>, while overtightening could scar <strong>employment<\/strong> and amplify financial\u2011stability <strong>strains<\/strong>. For now, \u201cwait and <strong>verify<\/strong>\u201d beats \u201crush and <strong>regret<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>What to watch next<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul><\/p>\n<li>Incoming inflation prints for signs that services disinflation is genuinely <strong>broadening<\/strong> and not merely <strong>base\u2011effect<\/strong> driven.<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<li>Labor data on vacancies, hours, and underemployment to gauge demand\u2011supply <strong>rebalancing<\/strong> without a sharp <strong>snapback<\/strong> in joblessness.<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<li>Household spending and arrears metrics as higher rates continue to <strong>filter<\/strong> through mortgage <strong>cohorts<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<li>Global dynamics, including China\u2019s growth <strong>impulse<\/strong>, commodity price <strong>swings<\/strong>, and the trajectory of major\u2011economy <strong>central<\/strong> banks.<\/li>\n<p>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>The bigger picture<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Policy is now about <strong>persistence<\/strong> rather than <strong>pace<\/strong>. The next meaningful shift depends on whether inflation proves <strong>stubborn<\/strong> or steadily <strong>subsides<\/strong> as demand cools and supply <strong>heals<\/strong>. The Bank\u2019s strategy is to hold the <strong>line<\/strong> until the data say the job is <strong>done<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>For households, that means budgeting for a prolonged <strong>plateau<\/strong>, not an imminent <strong>pivot<\/strong>. For firms, it favors disciplined <strong>pricing<\/strong>, cautious leverage, and a focus on productivity <strong>gains<\/strong>. And for investors, it underscores that risk premia remain tightly linked to the <strong>path<\/strong> of underlying <strong>inflation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>In short, policy is calibrated to buy <strong>time<\/strong>\u2014time for earlier hikes to exert full <strong>force<\/strong>, time for inflation to retreat toward the <strong>target<\/strong>, and time to avoid unnecessary <strong>damage<\/strong> to the job <strong>market<\/strong>. The message between the lines is clear: \u201cstay the <strong>course<\/strong>, stay <strong>alert<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":290,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"class_list":["post-259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RBA holds cash rate at 3.85% for fourth consecutive meeting - The Ponds | Shopping Centre<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/shopattheponds.com.au\/news\/rba-holds-cash-rate-at-3-85-for-fourth-consecutive-meeting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RBA holds cash rate at 3.85% for fourth consecutive meeting - 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