For years it was assumed that China would eventually rebalance its economic model. Less reliance on exports and enormous investment. More domestic consumption. More middle-class spending. More services. More “normalization.” But the transition never fully materialized.
China remains a colossal industrial power built on a relatively weak consumer base. And when a country produces far more than its own population can absorb, it needs to place the surplus abroad.
That is why Chinese exports are not simply a story of competitiveness. They are also an internal necessity. The Chinese consumer still does not pull the economy with sufficient force. The housing crisis severely damaged households’ confidence. Youth unemployment remains high. Job insecurity persists. Families continue to save a lot because they do not feel economically secure enough.
The Frugal Chinese
The West often interprets China’s high saving as a cultural issue. This is partly true; indeed Chinese corporate saving is on par with that of other countries, but it is the consumers who save a large portion of their pay. Moreover, it is a rational response to an uncertain environment. If housing loses value, jobs become less secure, and social protection remains limited, households save more and spend less.
If we compare China’s saving rate with other major economies, the gap is striking. In 2024, China’s rate stood at 43.4%, versus the United States at 17.1%, and Germany, Japan, and Spain at 25.3% (World Bank data).
An economy like China does not need savers, it needs spending consumers.
Because the old alternative engine is also running out. For decades, China offset weak domestic consumption with construction, infrastructure, credit and real estate expansion. But that model can no longer grow at the same pace. Excess debt and the saturation of the real estate sector have greatly reduced its ability to sustain growth.
What remains is industry. China probably has the largest industrial machinery complex ever built in peacetime. Electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, steel, electronics, heavy machinery, chemicals, ships, industrial components. The scale is colossal. The country produces far more than its domestic market can absorb today.
But that industrial capacity cannot stay idle. Shutting down factories means unemployment, falling local incomes, financial tensions and the risk of social instability. For the Chinese Communist Party, keeping production active is not just an economic objective. It is a political matter.
That is why China needs to keep exporting, not only to grow but also to sustain jobs, industrial activity and internal stability. The problem is that the more China needs to export, the more tensions it creates with the rest of the world (including the EU and Spain).
Europe fears that Chinese electric vehicles will destroy part of its automotive industry. The United States accuses Beijing of flooding markets with subsidized overcapacity. More and more countries are raising trade barriers to shield strategic sectors.
The world has been asking China for years to consume more and depend less on exports
Many countries and institutions around the world want to solve this problem of the Chinese economy; there are proposals (such as the IMF’s 2025 plan) about how China could transition to a consumption-based economy and rely less on exports. But China’s own political and economic model continues to favour investment, industrial production and saving over domestic consumption.
While the Chinese consumer does not gain real weight within the economy, the country will continue to depend on pushing out its excess production. And that means more exports, more global competitive pressure and more trade conflicts.
Changing that is not easy. Because it would require redistributing more income to households, strengthening the welfare state, reducing industrial dependence and accepting potentially lower growth in the short term. The Chinese Communist Party is aware of this problem. For years the Five-Year Plan has included shifting to a consumption-based economy powered by the strength of households. This is one reason why the US economy is so strong—their consumers spend a lot, they do not rely on others to keep their economy going.
The Chinese consumer would have to spend much more to truly balance the economy. But until that happens, China will continue needing to export more and more.
Image | ELG21, orthys, himurasaeta