Ryanair arrives at summer from an enviable position. The Irish airline has just closed the best fiscal year in its history, with a profit of €2.26 billion, up 40%, revenues of €15.54 billion and 208 million passengers. Moreover, the company notes that Europe is well supplied with fuel and that it has hedged roughly 80% of its needs for the coming year at around $67 per barrel.
On paper, if we simply take a look at the Irish airline, it seems the perfect snapshot for a record-breaking new tourism season. However, the sector’s summer start is sending a more uncertain signal: travelers still want to travel, yes, but they are thinking much more carefully before booking. The proof is Barcelona: where hotel bookings should already be around 85%, they are currently only at about 55-60%. Will there be less tourism? No, but everything points to the average consumer making decisions with less lead time in 2026.
Holidays, on Hold
Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s chief executive, acknowledged that a portion of customers are showing more reluctance to book their holidays, in a context marked by the war in the Middle East, fuel uncertainty, and the cumulative rise in travel costs.
The company’s response has been to apply moderate discounts on some summer fares to stimulate demand. Ryanair, which has enjoyed an exceptionally strong fiscal season, needs to move prices to persuade a more hesitant consumer.
In response to this situation, airlines have mobilized to reassure customers, stating that there will be no fuel surcharges nor are cancellations anticipated. However, fares on the usual UK-Spain routes have fallen on average by about 10% for July versus the previous year; with August data, it’s still early to compare figures.
A different example is easyJet, which has launched a ‘book with confidence’ promise for this summer: the airline assures that no future increases or fuel surcharges will be applied once the ticket is purchased. More than a direct discount, it is a way to reduce uncertainty and persuade travelers to book.
Analysts do not talk about a summer lull, but they do point to a shift in pace: less early purchasing, more waiting and price-sensitive decisions. A pattern that affects airlines, but also hotel chains that have detected the same slowdown in bookings.
Tactical Discounts, Not Deep Cuts Across the Board
For now, the response from airlines has been prudent. They don’t want to send the message that summer is starting poorly, but they cannot ignore that some routes need incentives: in short, on the most price-sensitive routes, adjustments are already starting to show.
The clearest example is the route between the United Kingdom and Spain, one of the continent’s most important. Southern Europe is once again a major bet for airlines this summer, where Spain, Italy and Greece concentrate a large portion of the capacity increase planned for Western Europe, with millions of extra seats compared with last summer. More supply to sun-soaked destinations, which requires demand to respond.
Wizz Air has also acknowledged selective adjustments, as Reuters reported. The company foresees a strong summer, with more bookings than last year, but is offering lower prices on routes where it has detected a slight drop in demand, especially in destinations near the Middle East, such as Cyprus and Egypt.
There lies the search for that delicate balance: if fuel pushes costs higher, airlines would like to pass some of that rise onto the ticket. However, if the consumer delays bookings or becomes more cautious, raising prices can become a problem. Ryanair has an advantage over competitors less hedged against fuel costs, but even so it has preferred to adjust fares rather than risk losing volume.
The same behavior is starting to appear in hotels. The picture comes down to last-minute bookings. According to Bruno Hallé, partner and co-director of Cushman & Wakefield Hospitality in Spain, Barcelona should already be around 85% booked for July, but is currently between 55% and 60%.
The sector trusts that many bookings will come in later, as has happened in other moments of uncertainty, but tighter dates complicate management: companies have less visibility, price adjustments are made with more caution, and promotions are launched to encourage early purchases.
There are also signs of moderation in tourist spending. La Vanguardia cites data from CaixaBank Research’s Consumption Monitor indicating that card payments in hotels fell 1.2% year on year in the first week of May, while in April they had fallen 6%. On travel agencies, spending has accumulated two months of declines.
That cooling also appears in the figures gathered by Hosteltur from CaixaBank Research’s Consumption Monitor: Spaniards’ spending on hotels fell 6% in April and spending on travel agencies dropped 6.3%. The data carries some calendar effect from Holy Week, but aligns with the same underlying idea: the consumer hasn’t stopped spending on leisure, they are weighing travel choices more carefully.
Again, nuance matters. Spain does not appear to be heading for a poor tourist summer. Indeed, the Western Mediterranean could benefit from instability in other regions. The key point here is that demand exists, but it does not translate into the consumer accepting any price.
Customers Start Setting Limits
In recent years, European tourism has lived in a kind of upward inertia. After the pandemic, the desire to travel, the savings accumulated, and the rebound in air traffic allowed absorbing sizeable increases in flights and hotels. The sector grew used to very resilient demand.
This summer, however, begins to show a different situation. Ryanair earns more than ever and airlines continue to schedule millions of seats toward Southern Europe, but the traveler is more cautious. The accumulated inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and the rising cost of vacations have caused many decisions to be postponed until the last moment.
The economic reading isn’t that tourism is collapsing. It’s more interesting: demand is still there, but it no longer seems infinite. Therefore, when the consumer starts to wait before buying, even an airline that has just posted record profits has to re-evaluate its prices. Supply and demand.