House prices in Spain have surged in recent years, but wages remain far behind that pace. More and more families are dedicating a large portion of their income to paying a mortgage, and experts are already warning of a risk that could erupt in the coming years: thousands of buyers could end up trapped in homes they can barely afford.
As the average price of housing has jumped in many cities by more than 30% since the pandemic, thousands of families are signing mortgages at the limit of their financial capacity.
And what is the biggest drawback of all this? A large portion of those loans could become markedly more expensive within five years.
The alert has come from the financial educator Yago, known on TikTok as @yagoentusfinanzas. He warns of a worrying scenario linked to mixed-rate mortgages.
According to him, many people are agreeing to seemingly comfortable installments during the early years without calculating what will happen if interest rates rise again. In some cases, the monthly payment could rise by more than €400 a month.
The housing market under ongoing strain
It is well known that housing has become one of the country’s main economic problems. Buying an apartment currently requires much higher levels of indebtedness than just a few years ago.
While wages have advanced slowly, the price of housing has continued to rise across much of Spain. In cities like Madrid, Barcelona, Málaga, Valencia or Palma, the mortgage burden required to access a home far exceeds the levels considered healthy by many financial experts.
Added to this is the general rise in the cost of living. Food, energy, insurance, community fees, taxes and bank financing weigh, as one would expect, more and more on household finances.
The real danger lies in mixed-rate mortgages
The expert believes that the situation could become even more complicated by the type of mortgages that are being signed today. “The mortgages they are giving are mixed-rate mortgages,” he warns.
This product combines an initial fixed-rate tranche with a second phase tied to a variable rate. During the first years, the installment remains relatively stable and is easier to bear for many families.
However, the risk appears later. “During the first 5 years you have a fixed-rate mortgage and from the fifth year you have a variable-rate mortgage,” explains the financial influencer.
And he adds: “During the first five years you will know exactly how much you have to pay in mortgage installments, but from the fifth year your mortgage will depend on how interest rates behave.”
The example of a 300,000-euro home
To illustrate the potential impact, Yago uses a very concrete example based on a 300,000-euro home. Under current conditions, a mortgage near 2% can generate a monthly payment of about €1,100 during the initial fixed period.
The problem arises when that period ends and the loan switches to a variable rate. “Knowing rates are now at lows, the most likely outcome is a significant rise,” notes the expert about interest rates.
According to his example, if interest rose to 4% and the bank’s usual spread were added, the monthly payment would change dramatically. “You would go from paying a mortgage of €1,100 in the first five years to €1,574 for the remaining 25 years,” he explains.
The difference far exceeds €400 per month and could completely disrupt the finances of many families.
A 43% increase in the mortgage payment
The change in monthly payments can be enormous for buyers already devoting a large share of their income to housing. “All those people who had set aside money to pay the mortgage will have to pay 43% more on their mortgage,” warns Yago.
That increase could become a very serious problem in a context where many families already bear a heavy financial burden to pay for housing, food, utilities and other basic expenses.
Moreover, the rising cost of living in recent years has further squeezed the economic margin available to numerous households.
Is a new real estate crisis looming?
The scenario inevitably recalls some of the problems seen during the housing boom prior to the 2008 crisis.
At the time, thousands of buyers accessed homes financed under seemingly comfortable conditions while interest rates remained low. When the economic context changed and installments rose, many families were basically trapped.
However, the current situation presents important differences. Banking regulation is stricter and there are greater solvency checks.
The major fear is that a future rate hike coincides with an economic slowdown or a deterioration in the job market. If mortgage payments rise while purchasing power continues to weaken, the risk of defaults could grow.
And Yago sums it up with blunt clarity: “That will obviously lead to a sharp rise in mortgage defaults and could trigger a significant crisis.”