A former prime minister has sparked a bracing debate, urging a recalibration of Australia’s foreign policy for a far more volatile era. Rather than clinging to familiar comforts, the argument is for a posture that is more self-reliant, more regional, and more pragmatic about the shifting balance of power. “Alliances are useful,” the ex-leader said, “but they are not infallible—and they should never be a substitute for national strategy.”
The case for strategic autonomy
The call centers on strategic autonomy: the ability to make decisions and shoulder risks without assuming a partner will always be present. In a world of competitive multipolarity, the United States remains a vital friend, but its domestic politics and changing global priorities inject real uncertainty. “No alliance is an insurance policy without excess,” the former prime minister warned, invoking recent swings in policy from Washington as a caution.
Autonomy does not mean isolation, and it does not mean neutrality. It means investing in capabilities, diversifying relationships, and hardening the national economy against coercive pressure. It also means setting expectations with allies: shared interests, yes; blank cheques, no.
Rethinking the alliance, not rejecting it
The critique is not anti-American, and it is not a call to dismantle a historic partnership. It is a push to make that partnership more balanced, more transparent, and less automatic. “We should be a partner, not a dependent,” the ex-leader said. That implies sharpening interoperability while retaining sovereign decision-making over when, where, and how Australian forces are used.
A smarter posture would deepen defense industry ties but insist on technology transfer and local production. It would boost resilience in cyber, energy, and space, while maintaining the diplomatic flexibility to manage crises without escalation by default. The alliance remains a pillar, but it cannot be the whole house.
Building regional partnerships
The most urgent shift is toward a denser web of relationships across the Indo-Pacific. That means showing up with resources, with respect, and with listening. Southeast Asia’s centrality should be treated as more than a slogan, and the Pacific should feel engaged, not lectured.
Economic statecraft is critical. Australia can be an energy and critical minerals powerhouse, a trusted education provider, and a reliable partner on infrastructure, health, and governance. Ties with India, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN need to be made thicker, not just in security but in commerce and climate cooperation.
- Diversify export markets, prioritizing Southeast Asian demand and Indian growth
- Expand language capabilities and regional expertise across government and business
- Scale development finance for Pacific and ASEAN infrastructure tied to high standards
- Run persistent, small-footprint exercises with regional militaries, focused on maritime security
- Lead ambitious climate partnerships on renewables, hydrogen, and resilient grids
The AUKUS debate
Nowhere is Australia’s strategic dilemma clearer than with AUKUS. Nuclear-powered submarines promise potent deterrence, but they carry staggering costs, long timelines, and thorny sovereignty questions. “If the kit arrives without the skills, doctrine, and industrial depth to sustain it, then we are buying prestige, not power,” the former leader argued.
Supporters counter that high-end capability is the price of credible deterrence, and that AUKUS’s technology pillar—covering cyber, AI, quantum, and undersea systems—will upgrade Australia’s edge far sooner than the first boat. Both views can be true. The imperative is to manage risk: invest in asymmetric systems that arrive faster, maintain transparency on cost, and retain freedom to use or not use capabilities under Australian command.
Resilience at home is strategy abroad
Foreign policy starts with a reliable economy and social cohesion. That means firming up supply chains for fuel, medicines, and data, and building an industrial base that can surge in a crisis. It means tackling disinformation with civic literacy, not just platform policing. It also means growing the national talent pipeline: STEM, regional languages, and public service careers that attract the nation’s best.
“Security is a system, not a silo,” the ex-leader said. Budget choices should reflect that reality—steady, long-horizon funding for agencies, defense, diplomacy, and development, rather than lurches driven by the news cycle.
Political courage and public debate
Realignment requires candour with the public and bipartisanship where it counts. Australia needs a debate that is less about theatrical loyalty tests and more about practical trade-offs. Which capabilities deliver the most deterrence per dollar? Which partnerships create options, not obligations? Which industries make the country safer, not just richer?
The former prime minister’s core message is simple: prepare for a world of contingencies, not certainties. That means nurturing the alliance while hedging, engaging the region with more humility, and investing in the capacity to stand on national feet. In an era defined by speed, surprises, and strategic crowding, the cost of delay is higher than the cost of change.